The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a valuable tool for predicting the direction of the economy. In October, it fell, indicating that a recession could be on the horizon, according to The Conference Board. However, despite this decline, a recession has not yet occurred after 19 months of decreasing index values. Many economists have adjusted their forecasts as a result.
Earlier this year, The Conference Board predicted a recession by now, but one reason we are not currently in one is due to the strength of consumer spending. Despite this, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board still anticipates a short recession early next year. While there has been no dramatic decline in manufacturing or the housing market, data shows that these sectors are still experiencing some challenges.
Meanwhile, U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics has changed his predictions and is no longer forecasting a recession for this month. He still expects unemployment to increase and labor conditions to soften, but he believes a soft landing is more likely to occur. He added that he is open to updating his forecasts if economic data continues to surprise him.
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